The route is the constraint, not the budget
Most opportunities in public markets are lost on procurement mechanics, not on price or capability.
Ask a company why it lost a public-sector opportunity and you will usually hear about price. Ask the buyer and you will usually hear about the route.
The work was reachable through a standing offer nobody held, or a supply arrangement that closed to new entrants two years ago, or a master agreement that names three firms and none of them was yours. The budget existed. The capability existed. The path did not.
Why this keeps happening
Capability and price are the things a company can see about itself. Procurement mechanics are a thing it has to go and find out, and the finding out is unglamorous: reading the vehicle, checking who is on it, checking when it was last refreshed and when it next will be.
So it gets deferred until a tender appears, at which point the answer is fixed and it is too late to change it.
What to establish first
Before assessing whether an opportunity is worth pursuing, establish the route:
- What vehicle does this buyer actually use? Not what they could use.
- Are you on it? If not, when does it refresh, and is that inside your window?
- Who is already on it? An incumbent on the vehicle is a different competitor from one who has to get on it too.
Three questions, all answerable from public records, all cheaper to answer than a bid.
The order matters
Answer the route first and the rest of the assessment gets shorter, because a route you cannot reach ends the exercise. Answer it last and you have paid for an assessment of an opportunity that was never available.
The door is open. Someone is usually standing in it.
